Occasions and courses when they can give of their best, here are four horses that will be meeting their
ideal conditions at Cheltenham and have leading chances in their respective races.
On the first day of the meeting the Paul Nicholls trained Ghizao is well fancied for the Arkle Chase, it
looks like he has been kept fresh for the Festival by Nicholls and that suits the horse well who is always
best after a break.
By the time that he arrives at the post for the Arkle he will have been off the course for 76 days, if
you just look at Ghizao's runs when he is fresh or has been rested for at least six weeks and runs at trips
below 2M 4F then his record becomes an impressive – 111211 – (5/6) and being fresh on Arkle day and running
over the minimum trip is clearly going to be beneficial. Anyone looking for
Paul Nicholls Cheltenham tips could
do much worse than back Ghizao.
Arkle winners often go on to run in the Champion Chase and our next trendsetter will be appearing in that
very race. Big Zeb is the reigning champion at 2M and like Ghizao his record when rested for at least 6
weeks and running over the mimimum trip is 111111 (6/6) – he will go to Cheltenham off the requisite amount
of rest and will once again be a strong challenger to be the Champion chaser over the 2M trip and the
Cheltenham odds reflect
this.
For our next contender we step up considerably in distance and take a look at Mourad in the World Hurdle,
many consider this to be a head-to-head between Big Buck's and Grans Crus but Willie Mullins charge may well
have a say in this. Since being stepped up in distance his record reads 41213411 (4/8) and he is a viable
alternative to the big two in the various markets in the races, especially those betting without the
favourite.
Finally, one for the Gold Cup and here Imperial Commander is bidding to retain his crown, there are
various race statistics against him, his age for one, as he is now a 10 year old but within his own profile
he has plenty going for him. Another who is at his best when fresh his enforced breaks from the track this
season may well have been eventually in his favour. Compare these two records – he is 8/9 when not having
run for at least 50 days but 1/10 when rushed back to the track quickly. Readers may well remember how after
winning the Gold Cup impressively last year he was returned quickly to the track at Aintree and didn't jump
well and unseated his rider in the Totesport Bowl, that after a break of just 20 days.
There are many other examples of trends or patterns within horses which point to their chances but these
are four positive ones for this year's Cheltenham Festival.
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